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雄安新区是新常态经济学的试验场

【编者按】中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院副院长聂辉华教授接受多家媒体采访,发表了对雄安新区的评论。
 
把非首都功能疏解到雄安 北京房价大概率下降
 
“如果北京不是首都,那房价根本不会这么贵。所以一旦把北京的非首都功能疏解到雄安,北京房价下降是大概率事件。”4月11日,人大国发院副院长聂辉华在人大国发院新政治经济学前沿讲座发表评论时指出。
 
4月11日,人大国发院政企关系与产业发展研究中心举办了新政治经济学前沿讲座“行政级别才是理解城市发展的钥匙”。本次讲座主讲人江艇博士介绍了他和孙鲲鹏、聂辉华的共同研究论文。他们的研究发现,城市行政级别是比传统上认为的地理区位、基础设施、投资激励、人才吸引、创业环境、教育环境等等导致城市集聚更为根本的因素。他剔除直辖市后,选取16个副省级城市、16个非副省级的省会城市和250个地级市作为样本,发现从1999年到2014年,高级别城市在区域内的重要性随着时间提升,有级别的城市所占省份经济在提升,下降的只有河北、山西、云南、福建这几个省。
 
在评论中,聂辉华指出,雄安新区千年大计出现之后,新闻联播或者主流媒体一片叫好,但在朋友圈中很多知识分子持质疑态度。他表示,这很正常,知识分子基本上以批判社会为主,所以中央或者地方政府出台任何东西,很少看到知识分子唱赞歌。在知识界,表扬政府需要付出巨大勇气的。
 
但他表示,如果权力影响资源配置从而影响发展,一个地方如果拥有足够的权力就可以很快的发展起来。雄安什么级别?雄安一上来说要比肩深圳。这说的是战略级别。行政级别是常务副省长当总指挥,省委书记,省长,省委副书记、常务副省长,这是排第四号的。它比普通的省会城市级更高一点点。
 
所以他对雄安的态度是,雄安如果方向不失误,正常情况下可以发展为中等城市的,可能赶不上苏州但是像合肥那样没问题。
 
参考文献:江艇、孙鲲鹏、聂辉华,2017,《城市级别、全要素生产率和资源错配》,中国人民大学经济学院工作论文。
 
载于凤凰财经。
 
Apt test case for new normal
 
Apart from accommodating “non-capital functions” of Beijing, Xiongan New Area can also explore a sustainable development path that strikes a balance between maintaining economic growth and curbing property prices, as well as protecting the environment — which, in other words, is the new normal of moderate but sustainable and eco-friendly economic growth. 
 
Besides, it is not proper to compare Xiongan New Area with Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, established in the 1980s, or the Shanghai Pudong New Area, set up in the 1990s, in terms of just potential economic output. Xiongan New Area has a wider range of goals which include studies to find ways to cure the “urban ills”, transform the economic structure and implement a new pattern of urbanization. Since the yet-to-materialize new area will eventually cover 2,000 square kilometers — from 100 sq m in the initial period — it will be large enough to explore ways of solving the problems faced by cities and optimizing development in densely populated areas.
 
Strengthening public resources and building infrastructure facilities that support the development and growth of cities will be given priority to improve communication between the new area and the cities around it. Jingjinji Intercity Railway Investment Corporation, co-financed by the governments of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei province and China Railway Corporation, has already been officially launched. So it’s possible that work on the intercity railways would start soon.
 
And once hospitals, branches of universities and scientific research institutions are established in, and State-owned enterprises move into the area, they will attract a resourceful and efficient talent pool, as well as more workers to Xiongan.
 
载于China Daily。
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